Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Why I Agree With Paul Volcker

Paul Volcker stated the other day that the future unemployment rates could stabilize at 7-10%. I agree whole heartily with his assessment. There is one major reason for this...Retirement. More than 40% of workers over 50 years of age have saved less than $25,000. Pension plans have multi billion dollar shortfalls and will either have to get the money from somewhere...hehe...or bridge the gap by negotiating pension benefits to the down side. Beyond that, since the government is spending to their limits, inflation will be very very prevalent. By the time this market reaches negative credit crunch returns of 80-90% within the next few years, most people will be holed up in a cash bunker. Their fear and emotions will keep them from investing and miss out on the coming recovery rallies. As they sit in cash, inflation will start to go haywire and they will be losing inflation minus their money market rates. example: 18% inflation minus 7% money market is a net loss of 11% per year. Long story short, retail investors will not be able to buy a bucket and many will remain in the workforce well past the ever retreating age of retirement.

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