Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Where is the Market Heading?

In the great depression people were borrowing upon borrowed money to buy stocks. When everything started crashing in 1929 people and companies had to start deleveraging themselves. When our wonderful government whom we must rely on to survive and prosper (cough cough) decided to force banks to loan money, they of course created the housing bubble, which in turn popped...I am sure you are all personally familiar by now with the initial aftermath of the credit crisis. blah blah blah right? Well, remember how long the great depression lasted? Quick recap...1929 -17.2%, 1930 -33.8%, 1931 -52.7% 1932, and 23.1% in 1933 before bottoming out. All in all the market declined almost 90% during the great depression as the stock market deleveraged itself. So how much do we have to deleverage ourselves this time as compared to last time? 1930's debt represented almost 160% of the U.S. economy while in 2008 total economic debt represented close to 350% of the U.S. economy. Hello! So this time around what are the market returns that will be etched into the history books? 2007 -6.57% from its high, 2008 -33.87%, 2009 -7.91%...so far....

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